Hong Kong is entering "a very difficult economic environment" as trade declines and growth slows, according to the city's financial secretary. "Industries like retail, catering and transportation have taken a hit because of the recent violent unrest, with significant revenue drops," Paul Chan wrote on his official blog. Following violent weekend demonstrations, flights were canceled at the Hong Kong International Airport for the remainder of Monday as thousands of protesters disrupted operations, triggering a 0.4% slide in the Hang Seng index. submitted by
Meanwhile, shares of Cathay Pacific (OTCPK:CPCAY) shares tumbled nearly 5% in Hong Kong after the carrier sacked staff who joined anti-government protests in the Asian financial hub. Two airport employees were fired and a pilot was suspended as Beijing stepped up its efforts to pull local business into line over the escalating demonstrations. The rallies, which were started to protest a bill that would have allowed people to be extradited to mainland China, have snowballed into a democracy movement, with some even demanding full autonomy from Beijing. Go deeper: Holdings of iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (NYSEARCA:EWH).
China bounces back, U.S. slips
The Shanghai Composite climbed 1.5% overnight, advancing by the most in over a month, following a wild trading week in which U.S.-China trade tensions shook asset prices across the board. The PBOC today set the yuan at a stronger rate than expected - 7.0211 to the dollar - easing concerns of a quick devaluation after the U.S. last week dubbed China a currency manipulator. The positive turn didn't extend to Europe or American markets, where stock index futures fell 0.5% after President Trump suggested that trade negotiations could break off.
South Korea has moved to downgrade Japan from its list of most trusted trading partners while also seeking talks to end a months-long spat that has hurt economic ties between the two countries. It plans to split its fast-track category into two and initially put Japan as the only country in the second one, a move that comes less than two weeks after Tokyo removed South Korea from its list of "white nations" considered safe enough to export strategic materials. The dispute has undermined the economic outlook of Seoul, which is already struggling to cope with the U.S.-China trade war. Go deeper: South Korea investing analysis at the Global Investing Center.
The boards of CBS (NYSE:CBS) and Viacom (NASDAQ:VIA) were negotiating late into Sunday night, trying to hash out a price for their long-awaited all-stock merger, Bloomberg reports. The companies aim to announce a merger by today, although the timing could slip into Tuesday, capping years of failed merger attempts and board infighting. Shari Redstone, whose family investment vehicle National Amusements controls both companies, would become chairman of the combined entity, while Viacom CEO Bob Bakish would lead the firm as CEO. Go deeper: The Possible CBS-Viacom Merger by Allen Cooke.
'The Hunt' canceled
Universal Pictures (NASDAQ:CMCSA) has canceled the release of The Hunt after the mass shootings in Ohio and Texas last weekend that killed 31 people and wounded dozens of others. The film, which was due to hit theaters on Sept. 27, is about a group of globalist elites who pay large amounts of money to hunt people for sport. The move follows a decision by Walmart (NYSE:WMT) on Friday to remove video game signage and displays from its stores that depict violent gaming.
Trying to diversify away from ETFs and index funds, BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) has scooped up a 30% stake in Authentic Brands Group, parent company of Sports Illustrated, for $875M. Created in 2010, Authentic Brands Group also owns Aeropostale, Juicy Couture, Herve Leger, Nine West, Spyder and Frye. The deal values Authentic at more than $4B including debt and will see BlackRock supplant private-equity firm Leonard Green & Partners as its largest shareholder. Go deeper: BlackRock: An Industry Leader Trading At A Discount by Kody's Dividends.
India's largest FDI to date
Saudi Aramco (ARMCO) is buying a 20% stake - worth approximately $15B including debt - in India's Reliance Industries' oil and chemicals business. The move could help it diversify outside Saudi Arabia as it gears up for its first earnings call today ahead of a planned initial public offering. Blaming lower oil prices, Saudi Aramco meanwhile said net earnings for the first half of 2019 were $46.9B, down just over 11% from $53B in the year-earlier period.
Major upset in Argentina
Investors in Argentina are bracing for a market and peso selloff after Sunday's primary, which saw voters soundly reject President Mauricio Macri's austere economic policies. A coalition backing opposition candidate Alberto Fernandez - whose running mate is former president Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner - led by a wider-than-expected 15 percentage points with 47.3% of votes, with 88% of ballots counted. A candidate needs at least 45% of the vote or 40% and a difference of 10 percentage points over the second-place runner in order to win the presidency outright. Voters will return for a run-off on Nov. 24 if there is no clear winner.
No chance of Italexit
"The idea of leaving Europe, leaving the euro has never been in the pipeline," the leader of Italy's League, Matteo Salvini, told reporters at a rally near Matera. On Friday, his party filed a no-confidence motion to bring down the government it forms with the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement, a move that he hopes will lead to a snap election and install him as the nation's new leader. The shock decision threw the eurozone's third-largest economy into deeper uncertainty just as it was due to start 2020 budget preparations, causing a selloff in Italian bonds and shares. Go deeper: Breakdown on the euro vs. its peers.
What else is happening...
Russia warns Google (GOOG, GOOGL) on advertising after election protests.
First woman to run British banking giant.
Tyson's (NYSE:TSN) Kansas plant closed indefinitely following fire.
Big splash? Natty Light hard seltzer from AB Inbev (NYSE:BUD).
Iraq, Exxon (NYSE:XOM) still in talks over mega oil infrastructure project.
Osram (OTC:OSAGY) shares surge 12% after AMS (OTCPK:AMSSY) triggers bidding war.
Safety claims in focus as Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) catches fire in Moscow.
Today's Markets In Asia, Japan closed. Hong Kong -0.4%. China +1.5%. India closed. In Europe, at midday, London -0.3%. Paris -0.3%. Frankfurt -0.1%. Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.5%. S&P -0.5%. Nasdaq -0.5%. Crude -1.4% to $53.76. Gold +0.3% to $1513.70. Bitcoin +1.2% to $11371. Ten-year Treasury Yield -4 bps to 1.69%
Today's Economic Calendar 2:00 PM Treasury Budget
http://www.danielwilczynski.com/2017/11/29/bitcoin-price-index/ submitted by
Using BETI To Profit From The Coming Bubble
Nov 30, 2017 | 6 Min Read | 0 Comments TLDR: Sell above exponential trend line. Buy below trend line.
The time to sell off is after Bitcoins rise above $18000. Following crash buy in slowly below $10000.
NOTE! This is just a strategy that gives an educated guess. The strategy could be wrong. Don’t hold me responsible for the results of your trading. Bitcoin price can be hard to predict.
Using BETI To Profit From The Coming Bitcoin Bubble.
The Bitcoin bubble and crash cycle is repeating. As price shoots up meetup attendance and exchange user numbers have also exploded. Many newcomers are looking to invest in Bitcoin or have recently invested.
As the raising price brings more media attention to Bitcoin, causing further price rises, a mania builds that will send Bitcoin to spectacular heights. It will then crash and enter a bear market reaching possibly as low as $1000.
This has been the pattern before and its likely to repeat again. What is hard to predict is the exact highs, lows and when the bubble will occur.
This post explains my simple framework for estimating the price targets to sell, buy and when.
The essence of it is when the price is significantly above the exponential trend line it’s time to sell off. If it’s on the trend line or below it’s time to accumulate.
Log Chart of Price
The first graph is of the log(price) of Bitcoin. X axis is days since 31/7//2010.
Light Blue is the line of best fit. Red is a more conservative line with lower slope assuming exponential rate will decrease as Bitcoin market cap gets larger.
This second graph illustrates BETI (Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index). It shows how far we are from trend line. Y = ln(days-price / expected-days-price). X axis is days since 31/7/2010.
0 means we are on trend line.
The first observation we can make is that when we leave a bear market and cross the trend line, we usually get explosive growth.
We just recently (Nov 2017) crossed the trend line and all the indicators (google trends, user numbers etc) are rapidly growing. This suggest that we might have a cyclic top in the next 3 months.
The dizzying high prices will not last long. BETI might reach 1.5 for a few days. It will be hard to sell at the exact top however. BETI might stay over 1 for around 2 weeks.
Price Top Predictions
Let’s do some predictions of what could happen in the case of a cyclic bubble with the top occurring in 40 days.
A BETI of 1.5 (all time high BETI is 1.8) in 40 days would give:
a top of $32 200 based on line of best fit.
a top of $22 900 based on conservative line.
Volatility will likely go down in future, plus being conservative let’s look at BETI of 1 in 40 days. This gives us a price of:
$19 500 based on line of best fit.
$13 800 for conservative slope line.
We might want to start selling of slowly at a BETI of 0.8. This would mean respectively prices of:
When To Sell
We do not want to sell to early and be overtaken by the long term trend line.
Selling at $14 000 means we have 244 days from now till the best fit trend line reaches $14 000. We would want to buy back significantly before that time as we want to buy below trend line.
Selling at $18 000. Means we have 321 days from now till the line of best fit reaches the same price level.
As such, a good approach might be to not sell before $14000. Sell small amounts below $18 000.
Moderate amounts below. $27 000.
Large sell off above $27 000.
This means anybody with current Bitcoin holdings will make significant profit and has a very good chance of selling at a very good price. They should also have plenty of opportunities to buy back at lower price over then next year.
Cyclic Lows After Crash
How low could Bitcoin go in the bear market following the bubble pop?
If in 300 days we are in middle of bear market with BETI of -1.
That gives us cyclic price low of:
$6 200 for line of best fit.
$3 800 for conservative line.
If on the other hand we have a quick and gentle downturn such as the one in mid 2013 and only reach a BETI of -0.27 in 200 days, this would give us a price of:
$9 200 for line of best fit.
$6 000 for conservative line.
If we have a long downturn such as the one after the late 2013 bubble and reach a have low of -1.2 in 800 days. We would have a price of:
$25 800 for line of best fit.
$12 000 for conservative line.
This means we can be pretty confident that the crash will send Bitcoin at least below $10 000 dollars. After the pop I would suggest to start buying in slowly, each week we are below $10 000.
Its possible that Bitcoin will go even lower then that though, albeit briefly. A BETI of -2 in 300 days would give us
$2 300 for line of best fit. $1 400 for conservative line. Credits:
The concept of BETI was taken from core dev Dr. Johnson Lau in this thread
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